Climate change impact assessment under data scarcity by hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling in Izmit Bay/Turkey

To assess climate change impact on the hydrology of Izmit Bay, a coupled model chain using results four combinations Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional (RCMs) consisting two hydrological models (mGROWA PROMET) one hydrodynamic (MIKE 3HD) was established. data 4 GCM-RCM were applied to both models. The resulting 8 streamflow then MIKE 3HD possible situations in Bay. Related indicate range future regimes suitable for analysis In order evaluate effects changes only bay, bay considered as closed terms hydrodynamics. There is clear indication that induced impacts may influence sea level Bay minor extent. However, water exchange processes have much bigger influence. Hence, it suggested further simulations should be run once hydrologic regime Marmara Sea has been assessed broader macro-scale study.